Two percent is the new four per cent for mature economies’ GDP, meaning that the long-term outlook for global equity returns is likely to be in the mid-single digits, says John Tobin, portfolio manager with Epoch Investment Partners.
“Global GDP growth rates are converging around the two per cent mark for mature economies, while we expect developing economies to have GDP growth of three-to-four percent.
“The key market risks ahead focus around the “known unknown” risks brought on by the Trump Presidency, as well as the economic outlook for China.
“The downside risks of Donald Trump include higher interest rates, increased protectionism, anti-immigration policies and geopolitical shocks.
“The upside risks include tax reform, regulatory reform, infrastructure spend and faster credit growth.”
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