Rising tensions between the U.S. and China have brought national security issues back to the fore after a multi-decade hiatus. As a result, global supply chains are being overhauled to reduce vulnerabilities and to restrict Chinese imports of “dual-use” products that can be used f or both commercial and military purposes. Consequently, industrial policy, which had been tossed aside after the first Cold War, has returned as a bipartisan priority. The initial focus is on semiconductors and energy but is certain to broaden over the coming years (to include AI, quantum computing, and other advanced tech). The two biggest beneficiaries of hyper-globalization have been China and U.S.-based multi-national corporations (MNCs). As the globalization movie is played in reverse, we expect Chinese equities to underperform. Many American MNCs will also take a hit as exports to China frequently accounted for 40% of their revenue growth over the last decade.
