Global equity markets could still eke out single-digit returns over the next few years, says GSFM’s Advisor Stephen Miller, but there are plenty of risks to negotiate.

Speaking to InvestorDaily, Mr Miller said that US 10-year treasury yields are on track for 4 percent by the end of 2018, assuming the US Federal Reserve goes ahead with four hikes during the year.

Yields at 4 percent would begin to be a headwind for equities, Mr Miller said, but an increasing US budget deficit and a trade war would make 10-year yields of less than 4 percent challenging for stock markets.

“It’s almost unprecedented that the US would have a budget deficit well in excess of 5 percent of GDP when it’s close to full employment in peacetime,” Mr Miller said.

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