Trump’s decisive election victory, coupled with Republican control of Congress, introduces significant uncertainty to global markets. Over the coming weeks, we will closely monitor his policy direction, particularly on tariffs, immigration, and fiscal spending.

While disruptive scenarios remain a risk, our central case assumes a “moderate Trump” presidency. This would support stable growth in the U.S. and help mitigate potential global economic volatility. Under this scenario, the Eurozone could see a modest rebound, while emerging Asia continues its strong performance.

Read the Macro Update for November 2024