Recent market trends have highlighted the risks of aggressive U.S. trade policies, prompting expectations of a more measured approach that avoids a deep trade war. This paves the way for a broadly positive global economic outlook in 2025, supported by recovering demand, stable inflation, and strategic policy adjustments in key regions. However, tighter financial conditions in the U.S. and ongoing uncertainties around geopolitical and economic risks remain critical factors to monitor.
Given this outlook, we continue to favor a combination of offensive positions, which benefit from our central scenario, with explicit protections to mitigate potential adverse outcomes. Specifically, for defensive assets, we currently prefer long-duration positions over the dollar at the start of 2025.
Read the Macro Update for January 2025
