Despite unprecedented AI-related capital expenditure, productivity gains remain elusive. Such gains can’t come soon enough, given the experience of recent decades. Apple illustrates this challenge: our estimates show research productivity declining almost 40% annually from 2005-2024 despite a ninefold increase in research and development (R&D) resources. Our broader analysis of 1,218 US firms from 1975 to 2024 reveals median research productivity declining 10% annually even as R&D investment grows 6% per year

Read | The Productivity Paradox