Five weeks into the war, markets that were already potentially facing a reckoning on AI investment returns now also face the possibility of a sustained energy shock. Either alone could be manageable but put together the outlook is deeply concerning.
“Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice…”. For weeks, equity markets seemed to treat the Gulf conflict as a rerun of Liberation Day, betting that the pattern of escalation followed by retreat would hold. That bet is looking increasingly fragile.
