Markets live with two kinds of risk. Known unknowns such as elections, earnings and Federal Reserve (Fed) meetings. And then there are the unknown unknowns, and we’ve had plenty of these lately, thanks to geopolitical conflicts driving up inflation, tariff flipflopping and rogue AI agents. The US midterm elections on 3 November are one of the biggest known unknowns left this year. But do markets currently have the bandwidth to care about the election implications amid rising oil prices, surging government bond yields and the ever-evolving AI story?

