Tariff delays and exemptions helped the US economy outperform expectations in the first half of the year, but rising tariff collections and upcoming trade deals—with significantly higher reciprocal rates—could pressure US consumption, a key growth driver. Asian growth too faces headwinds in H2 as US import frontloading fades, but China and India are relatively resilient. The Fed may cut rates by year-end, while most Asian central banks are set to ease amid low inflation. The USD is expected to weaken as US growth slows and rate cuts loom, supporting modest appreciation in most Asian currencies. Meanwhile lingering tariff uncertainty and easing trade tensions create space for tactical risk-taking.
Read Eastspring’s Q3 2025 Outlook
