The surge in oil prices following the Iran conflict has revived concerns that inflation may prove more persistent – and interest rates higher for longer. GSFM investment specialist Stephen Miller warns that unlike past decades, fading globalisation, tighter labour markets and rising structural pressures mean today’s energy shock risks unanchoring inflation expectations. With echoes of the 1970s oil shocks and fewer disinflationary buffers in place, Miller argues central banks may have little choice but to remain firmly hawkish to keep inflation in check.

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Stephen Miller

Stephen Miller is GSFM’s market strategist. His expertise in international economic and policy analysis, as well as domestic and global economic and financial market developments, has resulted in him becoming a regular commentator on central banks, rates and inflation.

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