Despite ongoing uncertainty surrounding U.S. trade and fiscal policy, a moderately constructive global scenario remains our base case – provided tariff increases remain around the 10-15% range and the eventual fiscal package is seen as credible by markets.

However, risks are mounting. The structural deficit exceeds 6% of GDP, and the trajectory of U.S. debt is raising growing concern among investors. Even in the absence of further fiscal deterioration, the underlying equilibrium remains fragile. The risk premium on U.S. assets – including equities, Treasuries, and the dollar – continues to rise, driven not only by fiscal concerns but also by the volatility of political decision-making.

Tariffs function as a distortionary tax, introducing inflationary pressure in the short term while weighing on growth. The result is a policy mix that leaves little room for monetary easing, in stark contrast to most other major economies.

Read the Macro Update for June 2025

Alantra

Alantra is an international financial services firm with over 600 professionals representing 35 nationalities across 24 offices. Founded in 2001, Alantra provides alternative asset management, private capital and financial advisory services to companies, families and investors operating in the mid-market segment.

Information provided is general information and is for educational purposes only, and does not include, or constitute as, financial product advice.